NHTSA Recall Compliance | 2015–2025: Data Reveals Hidden Service Revenue Opportunities for Franchised Dealerships

As reported in May 2025 by S&P Global, the average age of US vehicles on the road today has reached 12.8 years.  Current data estimates suggest we’ve climbed beyond 13 years, making recall compliance more important than ever.  Over the past decade, vehicle recall activity has reached historic levels. Millions of vehicles are recalled every year for safety, emissions, electrical, and software-related defects. While recalls are often viewed as regulatory obligations, analysis of ten years of compliance data shows that recall campaigns represent one of the largest untapped service revenue opportunities available to franchised dealerships.

Recall Masters, the leaders and pioneers of vehicle recall solutions for the automotive industry, analyzes recall compliance data from approximately 4,000 recall campaigns over the past ten years, combined with publicly available completion rate reports from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and industry service-lane performance benchmarks. The findings reveal consistent patterns in completion rates, component categories, manufacturer behavior, remedy types, and the growing role of software and electric vehicle recalls.

Key findings include:

• Recall completion rates typically range between 75% and 87%, leaving millions of vehicles unrepaired.
• Airbag, electrical, and powertrain recalls dominate total campaign volume.
• A small group of manufacturers accounts for a large share of recall activity.
• Software-based remedies and EV-related recalls are increasing.
• Older vehicles with open recalls represent the highest service revenue potential.
• Recall visits frequently generate additional customer-pay repairs.
• Remedy type strongly influences completion rates.
• Proactive recall outreach by dealerships significantly improves compliance and service retention.

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For dealership service departments, these trends confirm that recall instances should not be treated solely as a warranty workload, but as an entry point for consumers to revisit the dealership for service. At a time when consumers have defected the dealership for repairs in the aftermarket, recall campaigns can drive customer reactivation, increase repair order value, and improve long-term retention.  Because recalls can only be repaired by a franchised dealership, the recall instance not only brings vehicles into the service lane, but they often uncover additional repair needs.

Vehicle recalls have become a permanent feature of the modern automotive industry. Increasing vehicle complexity, expanded safety regulations, and the rapid growth of software-controlled systems have contributed to a steady rise in recall activity over the last decade.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) tracks recall campaigns and publishes annual completion data across all manufacturers. While these reports focus on safety compliance, the same data can provide valuable insight for dealership operations.

Despite this, many dealerships do not actively mine recall data beyond responding to customers who schedule appointments on their own or those vehicles which pull into the service lane for other service.  What remains hidden are those vehicles which have exchanged hands in the secondary market, making it nearly impossible for dealerships and OEMs to notify current owners that a recall and remedy is available.  As vehicles age, the danger poses a threat for a longer period of time.

Supporting industry benchmarks were also reviewed, including recall completion summaries published by NHTSA and service department performance studies from automotive consulting groups. The goal of the analysis was not only to understand compliance rates, but to identify trends that reveal service-lane opportunity.

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Trend 1 — Recall Completion Rates Remain Below Full Compliance

Across the past decade, average recall completion rates typically fall between 75% and 87%. Even in strong compliance years, a significant percentage of vehicles remain unrepaired.

Typical yearly averages:

• 2015 — ~79%
• 2016 — ~78%
• 2017 — ~77%
• 2018 — ~83%
• 2019 — ~82%
• 2020 — ~87%
• 2021 — ~87%
• 2022 — ~85%
• 2023 — ~83%
• 2024 — ~80%

This means that millions of vehicles with open recalls remain on the road at any given time. For dealerships, these unrepaired vehicles represent one of the largest available pools of potential service customers. Many of these owners have not visited the dealership in years, making recall outreach a powerful reactivation tool.

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Trend 2 — Airbags and Electrical Systems Lead All Recall Categories

Component analysis shows that several systems dominate recall activity.

Most common categories:

• Airbags
• Electrical systems
• Powertrain
• Fuel system
• Back-over prevention / cameras
• Service brakes
• Seat belts
• Vehicle structure
• Exterior lighting
• Engine systems

Airbag recalls account for a large share of campaigns due to multi-year supplier issues and strict safety standards. Electrical system recalls have grown steadily as vehicles rely more heavily on sensors, modules, and software. These categories are important for dealerships because they often lead to additional repairs discovered during inspection.

Vehicles entering the shop for electrical or safety recalls frequently require maintenance such as:

• Battery replacement
• Brake service
• Tire replacement
• Fluid service
• Module updates

The recall visit becomes the entry point for additional revenue.

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Trend 3 — A Small Number of Manufacturers Generate a Large Share of Recalls

Analysis of recall counts shows that a relatively small group of manufacturers accounts for a large portion of campaigns.

Commonly appearing brands include:

• Ford
• Stellantis / Chrysler / FCA
• General Motors
• Mercedes-Benz
• Volkswagen Group
• BMW
• Hyundai / Kia
• Nissan
• Toyota
• Honda

Higher recall counts do not necessarily indicate lower quality. Larger manufacturers produce more vehicles and more model variants, which increases the likelihood of recall campaigns. However, from a dealership standpoint, this means some rooftops have significantly larger recall opportunity pools. Stores that actively monitor recall VIN populations can identify thousands of vehicles that have not visited the dealership recently.  Consumer privacy and data laws also make current-owner data more difficult to obtain, making it more critical for dealerships to partner with Recall Masters, which owns and manages the largest database of current VIN owners in the nation.  There’s no mistaking – you can’t help consumers you can’t reach.

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Trend 4 — Software-Based Remedies Are Increasing Rapidly

Keyword analysis of remedy descriptions shows a strong increase in software-related recalls.

Examples include:

• Reprogram control module
• Update calibration
• Flash ECU
• Install revised software
• Perform over-the-air update

Software remedies now represent a significant portion of campaigns. These recalls often have lower urgency for customers because the issue is not visible. As a result, completion rates tend to lag behind mechanical repairs. For dealerships, this creates opportunity. Software recalls provide a reason to contact customers who may not otherwise visit the service department. When scheduled properly, software recalls can be combined with maintenance services to increase repair order value.

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Trend 5 — EV and Hybrid Recalls Are Growing

Electric and hybrid vehicle recalls remain a minority but are increasing.

Typical EV-related recalls involve:

• Battery packs
• Charging systems
• High-voltage wiring
• Inverter software
• Thermal management

These recalls often involve more labor time and higher technical complexity.  EV owners also tend to visit dealerships less frequently for routine maintenance, which makes recall outreach more important. For dealers with growing EV populations, recall campaigns may become the primary way to maintain customer contact.

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Trend 6 — Completion Rates Decline as Recalls Age

One of the most consistent patterns in recall data is that completion rates fall over time. New recalls often reach high completion quickly. Older recalls tend to stall.

Reasons include:

• Vehicles change owners
• Customers ignore notices
• Vehicles leave the dealer network
• Owners use independent repair shops

This creates a large population of older vehicles with open recalls. These vehicles are often out of warranty and more likely to need maintenance, making them highly valuable source of CP revenue for service departments.

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Trend 7 — Severe Safety Advisories Do Not Guarantee Full Compliance

Even recalls marked do not always reach full completion.  Recalls designated as:

• Do Not Drive
• Park Outside
• Fire risk
• Crash risk

This shows that manufacturer mail campaigns alone are not enough. Dealership outreach significantly improves compliance. Stores that actively call customers, send texts, or use service marketing tools typically achieve higher repair rates.  For most dealerships, the cost of outreach leveraging outdated owner data seldom provides a return on the investment.  This fact also creates demand for a partner like Recall Masters, which provides a full turnkey solution for less than the cost of one full-time BDC agent.

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Trend 8 — Mechanical Repairs Complete Faster Than Software Fixes

Mechanical recalls involving part replacement tend to complete faster. Software recalls often remain open longer.

Possible reasons:

• Customers do not feel urgency
• No visible problem
• No immediate safety concern

This makes software recalls ideal for service marketing campaigns. They provide a reason to schedule appointments without requiring parts delays.  Software recalls and recalls that require a pre-inspection are also ideal for dealerships with mobile repair capabilities.

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Trend 9 — Recall Visits Generate Additional Customer-Pay Revenue

Industry studies consistently show that recall visits frequently produce additional repair work.

Common findings:

• Recall Masters tracks 54% of recall visits produce upsell work
• Average RO value for recall repairs (warranty and CP) often exceeds $625
• Older vehicles produce higher customer-pay revenue

This occurs because recall inspections reveal maintenance needs. Dealers who treat recall visits as inspection opportunities outperform those who treat them as warranty-only work.

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Trend 10 — The Largest Opportunity Is Older Vehicles With Open Recalls

The most valuable insight from the past decade of recall data is that many unrepaired recalls involve older vehicles.

These vehicles are:

• Out of warranty
• Still on the road
• Often owned by customers not visiting the dealership
• Likely to need service

This creates a powerful opportunity, if dealers can reach vehicle owners not currently in their DMS or visible to the OEM. Recall data can identify customers who have left the dealership and can bring them back at no cost to the consumer.  Once they return, service departments can generate customer-pay work and rebuild retention.

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Conclusion

Ten years of recall compliance data shows that recall campaigns are not just regulatory events. They are one of the largest overlooked service revenue opportunities available to franchised dealerships.  While year one rates have increased, subsequent years show completion rates remain low.  Some of those poor compliance rates have to do with owner fatigue – the annoyance of dealer with an increasing number of recalls – and defection from the dealership after sale, but most of that compliance is due to outdated owner data.

Software and EV recalls are increasing and older vehicles remain unrepaired. Dealerships looking to drive fixed operations revenue can turn to recall visits to generate additional work. Dealers who work with companies like Recall Masters, who actively mines recall data and contacts customers, can increase service traffic, improve retention, and grow fixed operations revenue.

In an industry where service profitability is critical, recall data may be one of the most valuable tools dealerships are not fully using.

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About the Author

Sean Reyes Chief Marketing Officer sean@recallmasters.com

Sean Reyes oversees all marketing efforts at Recall Masters as Chief Marketing Officer. Sean’s experience spans more than 35 years of business development and strategic marketing experience, having developed go-to-market products and solutions for the automotive, healthcare, insurance, finance and technology industries to serve Fortune 1000 clients like American Express, Toshiba, Western Digital, Cox Communications, Novartis, Microsoft, IBM, Compaq, HP, National General Insurance, MyCustomer Data, DigniFi and several automotive affiliates and dealerships. Sean lives in Napa, CA with his wife Kathryn and spends his free time hiking, kayaking, playing guitar, going to concerts, rebuilding project cars and helping his kids embark on adulthood.

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